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Is the stock market a good indicator of how the economy is doing?

Sunday Sep 28, 2008

I hear from many people that if the stock market is doing well that that necessarily means the economy is doing well overall. But with the recent increase in oil prices, stagnant wages, the mortgage/credit crisis, and a government with a lot of unfunded liabilities, I find this kind of hard to believe. Can anyone give some objective info on this question?

its a matter of definition…in their mind a good economy = stock market is doing well and their investments doing well. (someone who places a lot of weight on the stock market or the entire weight is a selfish elitist type person who has no idea nor really cares what happens to other people)

mine would to take the pulse of a country by looking at a broad array of indicators from unemployment rate, to inflation, housing market, bankruptcy filings, job growth, real salary decline/increase, netflow of jobs, illegal labor impact, budget deficits, trade deficits, energy prices, etc……

YOu have to look at the big picture….but actually if you ask americans in poll, they will usually give you a good idea of where the country is at…and such a poll right now would show that 70% of americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, and I would say that at least 60% of the respondents would say the economy is not doing good.


What are some stocks that could benefit from the expected boom in reverse mortgages?

Sunday Sep 28, 2008

Reverse mortgages are expected to boom in coming years as baby boomers look to retire. Anyone know of good stocks to consider to profit from this trend?

Nothing that isn't REALLY risky right now with the subprime mess. You need to ask this question again in six months or a year after the whole thing has settled down! There isn't a safe harbor in mortgages until that blows over.

A list of public mortgage companies –
http://www.mortgagedaily.com/companies.asp

But I think you'd be smoking crack to touch them until subprime worries either blow up or blow over.

Another, possibly safer option would be to invest in any of the big players in mortgage derivatives… Bear Stearns, Sachs, etc… But there again, you've got obvious exposure to the fallout from subprime mortgage debt.

I think the subprime/foreclosure issue is going to keep reverse mortgage market in limbo for some time. What retiree wants to even consider the possibility of mortgage default and foreclosure which is talked about daily in the news?!? You know the financial-planners are having a field day telling their clients to keep their money safe and secure, preferably in one of our vanilla funds or better yet a annuity life insurance product!


what is the best way to get a seller to finance a commercial real estate sale?

Sunday Sep 28, 2008


Give the seller a big down payment great terms.


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